oddsnark | Gambling with Johnny: Bowling Bonanza #2

2005-06 College Bowls • oddPicks

Gambling with Johnny: Bowling Bonanza #2

By oddSeth ⋅ December 21, 2005 ⋅ Post a comment

Record so far picking bowl games: 0-1

A big hearty thanks goes out from this 3 toed degenerate gambler to the Arkansas State Indians. Thanks for making me look stupid and putting me in an early hole by being just as bad as advertised but managing to only lose by 12, preventing Southern Miss from covering. Equal thanks go to Southern Miss, for obviously being the better team, moving the ball at will, but also fumbling the ball repeatedly as if some Cajun snuck in and coated it with bacon drippings.

But you can’t keep a 3 toed man down, so here I am, back with your pick for the mighty GMAC Bowl.

Game: GMAC Bowl: UTEP vs. Toledo
Johnny 3 Toes Pick: UTEP +3 -105 at SIA

This looks to be a pretty close game, with not a lot to separate the two teams on paper. Both are 8-3, both play in mid-majors not known for their football prowess, and neither have a quality win over a good team on the season. (Toledo comes closest, knocking off Bowling Green, but, umm, yeah, Bowling Green.)

I think most people would have given UTEP the edge here, but they dropped their last two games of the season, including a loss to SMU, while Toledo finished strong with a win over Bowling Green. That momentum (or lack thereof) is likely driving the line, as far as Toledo being -3.

I end up liking UTEP here, though, for the simple, dumb monkey reason that Mike Price is their coach. His love of strippers aside (please don’t sue me, Mike), you don’t almost end up being the head football coach at Alabama without being a damn good coach and recruiter, and many people pegged UTEP to be better than they performed this season, based on the general talent level. While their season disappointed slightly, it’s still largely the same talent on the field, and the same coach, and I think he gets the Miners fired up to play.

UTEP wins a close one straight up, but the ML isn’t quite attractive enough. Take the insurance of UTEP +3, especially at -105 at SIA.