Johnny 3 Toes’ Crazyass Longshot of the Week
I hope you degenerates listened to ol’ Johnny and took the Over in last night’s UConn-West Virginia game. They nearly covered Over 44 at the half, putting up a halftime score of 35-3 en route to a final tally of 45-13.
So now it’s time to roll out my Crazyass Longshot of the Week bet. The ground rules are pretty simple. Each week I crunch the numbers, rattle the chicken bones, and eat eight pounds of bacon, at which point my pick comes to me, glowing like some angelic hooken beneath the flickering neon sign of a roadside motel.
The only real catch is that it’s gotta be a true Crazyass longshot, with a ML over +1000.
The pickings are usually pretty slim, since it’s pretty damn rare for that big a dog to win, but I actually found a pick that I like. And because you’re good people, and I’m a generous asshole, here it is.
Pittsburgh +1040 vs. Louisville
Yeah, Louisville is ranked #24, picked by some pundits pre-season to possibly contend for a national championship, and capable of putting up 67 points while taking a dump at halftime. Pittsburgh looked pretty fugly early in the year, dropping three straight, including a lose to might Ohio.
On the other hand, though, Pitt’s won their last 3 in a row and 4 out of their last 5. So they’ve got a decent bit of momentum, although they haven’t exactly been thumping titans of the gridiron in that stretch (a loss to Rutgers and wins against Youngstown State, Cincinnati, Syracuse). They also beat a South Florida team that absolutely shellacked Louisville 45-14.
Louisville is coming off a 46-22 win against Cincinnati, a game in which they bounced back nicely from a crushing 46-44 loss to West Virginia in triple overtime. Other than the wacky loss to South Florida, Louisville’s pretty much showed up throughout the year, scoring a buttload of points, especially at home, where they’re averaging 64 points per game.
So yeah, on paper, it’s an easy Lousiville win. And on the field it’ll more than likely be an easy Louisville win. But I have a really hard time seeing Pittsburgh as a true +1040 dog in the game, as they do have a win against a team that thumped Louisville, and they’ve been playing much better of late. They probably won’t put up enough points to hang in there, but if you’re looking for a Crazyass longshot pick, it doesn’t get much better than Pittsburgh in this game.
